6 Thanksgiving Staples That Will Cost Alabama Families More This Year
Groceries are expensive enough without a holiday on top.
Forecasts point to higher prices for some Thanksgiving basics this year, and Alabama families may feel it at the register.
Here’s what to expect, so you can plan your budget before you shop.
1. Whole Turkeys
Your turkey leads this list on wholesale price.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) now expects wholesale frozen whole hen turkeys to average 174.6 cents a pound in 2026.
That’s up from 135.8 cents a pound in 2025, an increase of about 29%.
In plain terms, turkey that cost $1.00 a pound wholesale last year would cost about $1.29 this year.
Those figures cover wholesale prices for frozen whole hens, not the price on a store’s sticker.
The poultry category at your store, which includes turkey, is forecast to rise only 1.0% in 2026.
That’s below the 2.4% USDA expects for groceries overall.
USDA’s September supply and demand report, called WASDE, also raised its 2026 turkey price forecast.
It cited current price strength.
The wholesale price is expected to ease to 140 cents a pound in 2027.
If you’re buying a turkey this year, check the sticker against last year’s receipt before you pick a size.
2. Sugar and Sweets
The sugar in your pies and cookies falls under sugar and sweets. ERS forecasts a 6.6% price increase for 2026 in this group.
Picture $100 of baking sweets.
That would cost about $106.60.
The 6.6% is nearly triple the 2.4% forecast for groceries overall.
In August, sugar and sweets prices were 6.1% higher than a year earlier.
The sugar you bake with counts, and your finished pie doesn’t. The group covers sugar, artificial sweeteners, candy, gum and other sweets, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. Fresh Vegetables
Your mashed potatoes and salad count here. ERS forecasts a 5.7% price increase for 2026 in this group.
In August, fresh vegetable prices ran 2.6% above a year earlier.
A forecast for the whole year doesn’t tell you what a single trip to the produce aisle will cost.
How a Forecast Becomes Your Receipt
An ERS forecast is the price change expected for everything in a group, not for one dish.
The fresh vegetable forecast lumps potatoes, lettuce, tomatoes and more into one number.
Say you spend $40 on fresh vegetables for Thanksgiving dinner.
If your prices rose exactly 5.7%, you’d pay $42.28. That’s $2.28 more.
Alabama’s state sales tax on food is 2%, so it adds about 85 cents to that $42.28. Local city and county taxes on food add more.
4. Nonalcoholic Beverages
Your sweet tea, soda, juice and coffee all count here. ERS expects nonalcoholic beverages to rise 4.2% in 2026.
That’s about $4.20 more for every $100.
In August, these prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier.
Whatever you pour for guests falls under that one forecast.
5. Fresh Fruits
The apples in your pie sit in fresh fruits. ERS forecasts a 2.5% price increase for 2026 in this group.
That’s just above the 2.4% forecast for groceries overall.
So the forecast is a small bump. It also covers bananas, citrus and other fresh fruits.
But fresh fruit prices were 3.8% above a year earlier in August.
That runs above the forecast.
If you’re counting on fruit to stay cheap, check your store’s weekly produce prices before you buy.
6. Processed Fruits and Vegetables
Canned green beans and cranberry sauce count here.
ERS lists this group among seven forecast to grow faster than their 20-year average.
Groceries overall are forecast to rise 2.4%, against a 2.6% average.
The other six are fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, drinks, beef and veal, and fish and seafood.
If you swap fresh sides for canned or frozen to save, you’re shopping a group on the same list.
What’s Behind the Turkey Forecast
For the week ending August 28, wholesale frozen whole hen turkeys sold at 181.33 cents a pound, ERS reported.
That’s above the yearly forecast.
USDA also trimmed its 2026 turkey output forecast by 1 million pounds, to 5,099 million pounds.
Turkey eggs in incubators on the first of August totaled 25.8 million, 5.1% more than in August 2025.
Staples Going the Other Way
Not every Thanksgiving staple is getting pricier. ERS forecasts egg prices falling 29.4% in 2026.
At that rate, $10 of eggs would cost about $7.06.
In August, egg prices were 23.0% lower than a year earlier.
Dairy products, which include milk and cheese, are forecast to be nearly flat, up 0.1% in 2026.
Making deviled eggs or a custard pie?
That group is forecast to fall by about 29%.
Psst! How ready is your Thanksgiving grocery plan? Run through this checklist and see where you stand.
When USDA Updates Its Numbers
ERS revises its Food Price Outlook every month. The numbers above come from its September releases.
The next update is listed for October 23.
The agency says it usually posts updates on the 25th. It posts earlier if the 25th is a weekend or a holiday.
The WASDE calendar lists reports on October 9 and November 10.
The September WASDE changed its turkey price forecast, so the reports on those dates could move it again.
Mark those dates and you can compare the new numbers with the September figures.
9 Restaurant Chains Alabamians Still Miss Years After They Closed
Some restaurants stay on people’s minds long after they close.
These are the chains they talk about most.
9 Restaurant Chains Alabamians Still Miss Years After They Closed
9 Things Alabama Parents Won’t Say to a Grandparent’s Face
Some Alabama parents bite their tongues when a grandparent handles the baby differently.
These are the things Alabama parents won’t say to a grandparent’s face.
