How Much More Will Heating Oil Cost This Winter? This Forecast Offers a Glimpse for New Jerseyans

Heating oil averaged $6.04 a gallon in New Jersey in early October.

But a national forecast says the worst is yet to come; January will be the priciest month for oil-heated homes.

Here’s what the forecast for higher heating oil bills could mean for New Jerseyans who heat with oil.

Note: This is general information, not financial advice. Prices, forecasts and program rules are subject to change.

1. Prices Versus a Year Ago

Heating oil averaged $6.04 a gallon in New Jersey in the week of Oct. 5, 2026, in EIA’s weekly residential price series.

The same series showed $3.81 a gallon for the week of Oct. 6, 2025.

That’s about 59% higher, which works out to roughly $223 more on every 100 gallons you buy.

Ouch.

The U.S. average that week was $6.04 as well, so New Jersey wasn’t out of step with the country.

Heating oil prices come out weekly from October through March, so a newer week may differ from this one.

Compare your last delivery slip with that $6.04 average to see where your supplier’s price falls.

2. Winter’s $2,115 Average

Heating oil spending for the average oil-heated U.S. household is forecast to rise 21% this winter, to $2,115.

That comes from EIA’s outlook, published Oct. 6, 2026, and it’s a U.S. average.

If you’re the average oil-heated household, that’s more than $350 above last winter by our math.

Price drives the jump, with heating oil forecast to average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34% from last winter.

Heating oil and diesel fuel are both distillate fuel, and higher global prices for crude oil and distillate are behind the increase.

U.S. stocks are low too.

The average oil-heated household is forecast to burn 9% fewer gallons than last winter.

Multiply a 34% higher price by 9% fewer gallons (1.34 times 0.91), and you get roughly 22% more spending, close to the forecast 21%.

3. January’s Peak

Heating oil bills peak in January, at $509 for the average U.S. household in the forecast.

November comes in at $360, December at $465, February at $420 and March at $361.

If you match the average, January’s $509 runs about $150 above November’s $360.

Why January, then?

The price eases from $5.79 a gallon in November to $4.84 in March.

But the average household burns 97 gallons in January, up from 62 in November.

If your tank is full, December through February still bring the biggest monthly bills in the forecast.

Oil Heat’s Share of Homes

Heating oil is used for residential heating mostly in the Northeast.

In the federal Residential Energy Consumption Survey for 2020, about 230,000 homes in New Jersey used fuel oil or kerosene as their main heating fuel.

That’s roughly 7% of the state’s 3.39 million housing units.

Natural gas heated about 75% of the state’s housing units, and electricity about 16%.

You’re in the minority.

That survey dates to 2020, so today’s count in your neighborhood may differ.

Oil Versus Other Heating Bills

Heating oil is the priciest main heating fuel in EIA's U.S. winter averages.

Natural gas households average $640, propane households $1,246 and electricity households $1,196.

Natural gas is cheapest.

The forecast has natural gas spending down 9%, propane down 3% and electricity up 4%.

In the Northeast, natural gas comes in at $879, down 14%, and electricity at $1,637, down 3%.

Those are regional averages, so they aren't a like-for-like match for the $2,115 U.S. oil average.

EIA says you shouldn't assume that switching to a fuel with lower average spending would lower your household's bill.

Emergency Fuel Help

Heating oil households with gross income up to 60% of the state median can apply for New Jersey's Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).

The emergency benefit is limited to $800 for the initial purchase of fuel.

Regular heating assistance tops out at $1,278, and program benefits are capped at $4,878, not counting emergency payments.

The state authorizes emergency help only from December through June 30, according to the state handbook.

The program pays your fuel vendor directly, or issues a two-party check to you and the vendor.

The state Department of Community Affairs or a partnering agency must resolve an emergency within 48 hours of your request if you qualify.

If your household is in a life-threatening situation, the deadline is 18 hours.

Those are short windows.

Applications open Oct. 1 on a first-come, first-served basis and close June 30 of the following year.

You can start by calling the state hotline at 1-800-510-3102.

Your local Community Action Agency takes the completed application.

Why Your Bill May Differ

Heating oil's 21% jump is a U.S. average, not a statewide figure for New Jersey.

Your bill will vary.

Heating degree days add up how far each day's average temperature falls below 65°F.

EIA's forecast has them 12% lower in the Northeast than last winter, which partly offsets the price rise there.

Nationally, heating degree days are forecast to match last winter at 3,155.

Side cases with winters 10% colder and 10% warmer than the base forecast show that the 21% you're reading about depends on the weather.